Trying to predict turnovers in the NFL is a risky proposition

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The NFL offseason is a time for the talking heads and the analysts to rehash some age-old and accepted talking points in previewing the season ahead. One of those popular points is that turnovers are unsustainable for a defense. They say always that you are surely bound to see a sharp regression in your turnover count following a really high number of forced turnovers the previous year. The extremes don’t last, everything always reverts to the middle, fundamentals matter most, etc.

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