The Flaw in the Models, or How’d Brazil get beat down that badly?


Let’s get this out of the way. Based on Nate Silver’s models, Brazil had a 1 in 4000 chance of losing by six goals. By that same model, Brazil had a 65% chance of victory, even without Neymar and Thiago Silva [1]. And there is no statistical model I would trust more than something Nate Silver created (John Hollinger being a not-too-close second).

Even if you take the reasoning that statistical models don’t really care about the difference at the extremes, that 1-in-4000 is not that distinguishable from 1-in-400, this beatdown was still an all time outlier, as in this was one of the most unexpected scorelines in history.

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Stop Diawing Around – The NBA Finals Preview You Didn’t Know You Needed



Basketball fans, this one is for you. It’s Thursday morning, but more importantly it’s NBA Finals time, and we’ve gotten the rematch we deserve. It’s the new year, same as the old year. The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs. The NBA’s great villains and the NBA’s great heroes. Sometimes we need to stop overthinking things every year and saying things like “Oh but the Clippers could be a trendy finals pick,” or “Hmm…wonder if it may just be the Pacers’ year.” This was always how it was going to be, what it was meant to be. Sometimes, it is really as simple as the two best teams will make the finals. And the Spurs and Heat were definitively the two best teams this year.


Finals Previews Links Roundup | Links Analysis | Fun with Numbers | Ode to Manu | Personal Preview

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